基于产品空间理论的中国林业产业升级特征分析

Analysis of the characteristics of China’s forestry industry upgrading by product space theory

林业产业如何进行转型升级是实现林业现代化与高质量发展中的重要一环。本文基于产品空间理论,使用聚类热图和复杂网络方法,构建1962—2017年中国林业产业产品空间,从产品复杂度和优势林产品变化两个角度分析林业产业升级特征。结果表明,新获得优势林产品复杂度高,为0.31,传统失势林产品较低,为-0.21,表征林业产业已朝附加值更高的有利方向升级,但传统优势林产品复杂度较低,说明林业产业已有优势产品竞争激烈不利于升级。产品复杂度较高的潜在优势林产品是林业机械、机械零件和林化产品,优势林产品在产品空间中的变化存在一定路径依赖,先扩散后收敛于产品空间的中心位置,政府制定的林业产业政策与全球化背景可能促进了优势林产品升级。因此,政府制定产业政策时,应对不同优势类型林产品采取差异化策略,应完善产品复杂度低的传统优势林产品市场退出机制;减少与优势林产品距离较近的潜在优势林产品政策干预,对距离较远的复杂度高的潜在优势林产品使用补贴等方式引导升级。

Forestry industry upgrading plays a crucial role in forestry modernization and high-quality development.Based on product space theory,this paper applies the clustering heat maps and the complex network methods to construct the product space of China’s forestry industry to analyze the characteristics of it from 1962 to 2017.Results show that the newly acquired forest products have a high complexity of 0.31 and the traditional forest product have a low complexity of-0.21,indicating that the forestry industry has been upgraded in a favorable direction with higher added value.However,the traditional forest product shows the existing competitive products in the forestry industry are extremely competitive,which is not conducive to upgrading.The potentially advantageous forest products with higher product complexity are forestry machinery,mechanical parts,and forestry products.The change of advantageous forest product has a path dependence:expanding first and then concentrating to the center of the product space.Therefore,this paper suggests to form different forestry policies based on the different advantage characteristics of the specific forest,to improve the market exit mechanism for the traditional advantageous forest,to reduce potential policy interventions for potential advantage forest products that are closer to advantageous forest products,and to subsidize and to guide the upgrading of the forest products with a long-distance and high potential complexity.