右翼民粹主义的政治经济学——来自进口贸易和难民冲击的影响

The Political Economy of Right-wing Populism——Evidence from Trade Shocks and Refugee Crises

近年来,以右翼民粹主义为代表的反全球化力量在欧洲政治中的影响力逐渐增强。本文以2014年欧洲议会选举为对象,以进口贸易额衡量经济冲击,以各地区接收难民的规模衡量文化冲击,实证检验了影响右翼民粹主义力量的经济和文化机制。本文发现,右翼政党得票率受到发展中国家进口冲击的显著影响。同时,偏重经济议题的极右政党的得票率主要受到贸易冲击的影响,偏重文化议题的极右政党的得票率增长更显著地来自难民冲击。

Recent years have witnessed the rising support for right-wing populism in European politics.We rely on the outcomes of 2014 European Parliament election to empirically examine the economic and cultural mechanisms that fuel this trend.Using import competition to measure economic shocks and regional level refugee crises to measure cultural shocks,we find that regions exposed to more intense import shocks are more likely to vote for right-wing parties.We further show the increasing support for economic extreme right-wing parties is mainly caused by import shocks,and the electoral support for cultural extreme right-wing parties stems mainly from refugee shocks.