美国在华制造业FDI对中美集装箱贸易量的影响

Impact of American Manufacturing Industry FDI in China on Sino-US Container Trade Volume

为研究中国接受美国制造业外商直接投资(FDI)对集装箱贸易量的影响,以2005-2018年美国在华制造业FDI、中美间双向集装箱贸易量年度数据为基础,采用协整检验、Granger因果检验,构建了Almon多项式分布滞后模型,并添加了一阶滞后残差项AR(1)以消除残差序列一阶自相关,进行了实证分析。研究表明,FDI对中国出口美国的集装箱贸易量有正向滞后效应,对美国出口中国的集装箱贸易量存在波动,总体表现为显著的正相关滞后影响,且滞后效应的产生时间早于FDI对中国出口美国的集装箱贸易量的影响。

To study the impact of American manufacturing industry FDI on China's containers trade volume,the paper selected the data of American manufacturing industry FDI in China and the two-way containers trade volume between China and the U.S.from 2005 to 2018 as the basis,and adopted co-integration test and Granger causality test to establish an Almon polynomial distribution lag model.Meanwhile,it brought in a first-order lag residual AR(1)to eliminate the first-order self-correlation of the residual sequence.The result of an empirical analysis using the model showed that FDI has positive lagged effect on China-to-America export containers trade volume,and fluctuating effect on America-to-China export containers trade volume;however,the combined effect is a distinct positive lagged one where the lagged effect starts earlier than the effect of FDI on export containers trade volume from China to the U.S.