基于CIM-AHP模型的PPP项目风险评估研究

PPP Project Risk Evaluation Based on the CIM-AHP Model

公共基础设施采用PPP模式进行投资建设是有效利用社会资本的一种新型的投资方式,而PPP项目投资风险又是投资主体各方共同关注的问题.基于此,本文结合AHP分析法和CIM模型创建了一种新的风险评估CIM模型:AHP-CIM模型,并运用该模型对某高速公路建设PPP项目进行了建设风险评估实例验证.结果表明:该PPP项目发生低风险的概率为57.2%,发生较低风险的概率为41.6%,即风险主要集中在中低风险层次,投资风险很小,可以进行投资建设.

The PPP model is a novel funding model,in which social capital can be effectively utilized to invest in the construction of public infrastructure.The construction risks in PPP projects are a common concern of the investors.This paper uses the AHP-CIM model,which is built based upon the AHP analytic method and the CIM model,to evaluate the construction risks in a PPP highway project.The evaluation shows that the low risk probability for the project is 55.2%and the very low risk probability is 46.1%.In other words,the construction risk in the project is small,which means it is feasible to invest in the highway project.