青藏高原东北部农户对气候变化的适应意向及策略

Adaptive intention and strategy of farmers to the climate change in the Northeast of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

在气候变化背景下,准确辨识和分析农户的适应意向,是农户适应气候变化影响的基础,而适应策略的有效性分析是对气候变化趋利避害有效利用的关键和前提。湟水流域是青藏高原东北缘典型的农牧过渡带,是易受气候变化影响的边界地带。文章基于问卷调查的数据,分析当地农户对气候变化的适应意向及策略。结果表明:(1)农户在气候变化风险感知上表现出侥幸心理,而在适应感知上表现出认为自身有一定的能力去适应气候变化并认可适应结果,但会付出较高的适应成本,对气候变化的消极或中立适应意向强于积极适应意向;(2)影响湟水流域农户对气候变化适应意向最主要的因素是适应结果感知与家庭整体劳动力;(3)生产性策略中技术调整类策略在适应气候变化时较为有效,而贷款、保险等保障性策略并不被大家认同。基于此,对引导农户积极适应气候变化并调整适应策略提出了建议。

In the context of climate change,the accurate differentiating and analysis of farmers adaptive intention is the baseline for adapting to the effects of change impact and an effective analysis on the adaptive strategies is the key and prerequisite for taking advantage of climate change effectively and avoiding adverse conditions caused by climate change.Huangshui Basin is a typical transitional zone between agriculture and animal husbandry in the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and is a boundary zone susceptible to climate change.The adaptive intention and strategies of local farmers to climate change were analyzed based on the questionnaire survey data.Farmers showed a trusting to luck perceptiveness on climate change risk.In adaptive perception,Farmers showed that they have a certain ability to adapt to climate change and they recognize the results of adaptation but they will pay a higher cost for adapting to climate change.Their negative or neutral adaptation intentions are stronger than their positive adaptation intention.The most important factors influencing adaptive intention of farmers to climate change are the perception of adaptation results and the situation of household labor forces as a whole in Huangshui River Basin.Technological adjustment strategies in productive strategies are more effective in adapting to climate change,while guaranteed strategies such as loans and insurance are not accepted by farmers in the study area.Some suggestions were made to guide farmers actively adapting to climate change and adjusting adaptive strategies.