后疫情时代中巴经贸合作展望

Prospects of China-Brazilian economic and trade cooperation in the post-epidemic era

关键提示中巴经贸合作在过去十余年所呈现出的超高效率,其根本原因在于两国之间具有高度互补的经济关系,这种由两国比较优势决定的贸易局面很难发生根本改变。巴西经济在疫情下萎缩当新冠肺炎疫情开始在全球范围扩散时,巴西疫情防控普遍不被看好,其原因不仅在于该国的系列短板,比如医疗资源短缺、贫富分化严重、城市化畸形发展、财政亏空严重,而且也在于博索纳罗总统不严肃、不认真、不科学的防疫态度。尽管早有预期,但巴西疫情蔓延速度依然震惊全球。

The fundamental reason for the ultra-high efficiency of ChinaBrazilian economic and trade cooperation in the past decade lies in the highly complementary economic relations between the two countries.It is difficult to fundamentally change the trade situation determined by their comparative advantages.The bilateral economic and trade volume scale of China-Brazilian is about 1.7 times compared of that with the United States and Brazil.China’s foreign trade,exports and imports in Brazil accounted for 25.2%,29.2%and 20.2%,while the United States in all three accounted for 14.9%,13.2%and 17%respectively,which also reflects,for Brazil,at least in the economic level,the importance of China than the United States.Although Brazil has not signed the"One Belt And One Road"cooperation agreement with China,the ongoing economic reform in Brazil is highly consistent with the"One Belt And One Road"initiative in terms of policy orientation.