中国原油进口量激增至历史新高

Chinese crude imports surge to a new record

关键提示尽管2020年底中国原油海运进口量可能出现疲软趋势,但在全球石油供需及海运量均大幅下滑的背景下,近期中国原油海运进口量的激增成为"亮点"。受新冠肺炎疫情的影响,2020年上半年全球原油海运贸易量预计同比下滑6%,而中国原油海运进口量因受到低油价以及库存迅速累积的支撑表现抢眼。2020年上半年,中国原油海运进口量同比稳定增长11%,5月和6月进口量尤其强劲,远远超过纪录水平。

While global seaborne crude oil trade has been sharply impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic(estimated c.6%y-o-y decline in trade in 1 H 2020),trends in Chinese seaborne crude imports have been very positive,with low oil prices driving significant stockpiling.In 1 H,Chinese imports grew firmly by11%y-o-y,with imports in May and June particularly robust at levels significantly in excess of previous records.However,there is clearly potential for a softer end to 2020 for Chinese imports.Whilst more positive trends in the Chinese economy and start-up of new refinery capacity seem supportive,spot crude buying interest has reportedly declined recently amidst high stocks,whilst many’teapot’refiners have now used up most of their annual import quotas.Concerns also remain over the underlying strength of domestic oil demand,particularly following recent widespread flooding,whilst the gradual rise in oil prices is impacting refining margins.So,while late 2020 may see softer trends in Chinese crude imports emerge,the recent surge in purchases has led to record import volumes and tied up tanker supply through significant port delays.Against a backdrop of sharply lower global oil demand,supply and exports,Chinese crude imports have stood out as a welcome’bright spot’.