人民币国际化历程:理论修正与政策调整

The Process of RMB Internationalization over Ten Years:Theoretical Revision and Policy Adjustment

人民币国际化经历了市场导向、政府推进和以市场选择为主的三个阶段。由于理论和实践偏差,人民币国际化依然面临诸多难题,如国际货币门槛的交叉效应、货币职能的实现路径、货币国际化的滞后性、我国资本项目开放的渐进性以及国家战略选择次序等,都对人民币国际化构成了挑战。应当明确,人民币国际化的目的是给世界提供优质的公共产品,未来的政策应认识到,"交叉效应"决定着人民币国际化的渐进性和长期性,人民币国际化应服从于熨平中国经济周期和周期波动的大局,在资本流动适度控制、汇率灵活多变和人民币国际化的三难选择中坚持前两者优先,同时,人民币国际化应遵循服务实体经济、尊重市场选择和服务金融稳定的原则。

The RMB internationalization has gone through three major stages:market orientation,government advancement and market selection.Owing to the deviation between theories and practices,the RMB internationalization still faces many difficulties such as the cross effect of international currency’s thresholds,the realization path of currency function,the hysteretic nature of currency internationalization,the gradualness of Chinese capital projects opening up to the world and the priority of national strategies,those issues which are challenges for the RMB internationalization.It has been made clear that the objective of RMB internationalization is to provide high-quality public goods for the world,while the future policies should realize that the progressive and long-term internationalization of RMB is determined by the"cross effect",the RMB internationalization should serve to smooth the overarching situation of Chinese business cycles and cyclical fluctuation and priority should be given to the first two in the trilemma of the moderate control of capital flow,flexible and changeable exchange rate and the RMB internationalization.Meanwhile,the RMB internationalization should follow the principles of serving the real economy,respecting the market selection and safeguarding finance stability.