人口老龄化对装备制造业全要素生产率的影响——来自中国省级面板数据的实证检验

Impact of Population Aging on Total Factor Productivity of Equipment Manufacturing——Empirical Test of Panel Data from China's Provincial Level

装备制造业是中国工业的心脏和国民经济的生命线,是支撑国家综合国力的重要基石。本文在使用DEA方法测算中国装备制造业全要素生产率的基础上,以2001-2018年的省级面板数据为样本,基于固定效应模型和逐步检验回归系数方法从劳动力供给效应、居民储蓄效应、消费需求效应和人力资本积累效应四方面实证分析了人口老龄化对装备制造业全要素生产率的影响及作用机制。结果表明:人口老龄化可显著正向影响装备制造业全要素生产率,但存在区域差异,其影响机制为减少劳动力供给、增加居民储蓄、增加消费需求和提高人力资本积累。可从完善社保体系、发展银发产业、加强职业技术教育等方面入手发挥人口老龄化对装备制造业的积极作用。

The equipment manufacturing industry is the heart of China's industry and the lifeline of the national economy,and it is an important cornerstone supporting the country's comprehensive national strength.On the basis of measuring the total factor productivity of China's equipment manufacturing industry with the help of DEA method,using the provincial panel data from 2001 to 2018,based on the fixed effects model and the stepwise test regression coefficient method,from the labor supply effect,household savings effect,consumer demand effect and human capital accumulation,we analyse the impact and mechanisms of population aging on the total factor productivity of the equipment manufacturing industry.The results show that population aging can significantly positively affect the total factor productivity of the equipment manufacturing industry,but there are regional differences.The impact mechanism is to reduce labor supply,increase household savings,increase consumption demand and increase human capital accumulation.Methods such as improving the social security system,developing the silver hair industry,and developing vocational education can be used to play the positive role of the aging population in the equipment manufacturing industry.