空间溢出视角下基础设施投资对经济增长的影响研究

A Study on the Impact of Infrastructure Investment on Economic Growth from the Perspective of Spatial Spillover

中国经济步入新常态,经济下行压力加大,基础设施投资成为稳定有效投资、促进经济增长和改善地区发展不平衡的重点工作。本文基于经济发展的空间依赖性和基础设施具有网络性、外部性的事实,引入新经济地理学思想,从空间溢出角度探讨基础设施投资对经济增长的促进效果及其时间差异和地区差异。在基础设施投资对经济增长存在空间溢出效应的理论分析基础上,本文利用2003—2017年省际面板数据进行实证分析,分别探讨了在全样本、分时间段以及分地区情况下基础设施投资对经济增长的空间溢出效应,结果发现:基础设施投资存在显著的正向空间溢出效应;相比2003—2011年,2012—2017年基础设施投资表现出更为突出的空间溢出效应;基础设施投资的空间溢出效应存在明显的地区差异,其中中部地区表现最为突出。结合实证结论,本文提出应实施差异化的基础设施投资策略以及优先发展中部地区的基础设施投资等政策建议。

China’s economy has entered a new normal,economic downward pressure has increased,and infrastructure investment has become a key task for stable and effective investment,promoting economic growth,and improving regional development imbalances.Based on the spatial dependence of economic development and the fact that the infrastructure is networked and external,this paper introduces new economic geography ideas and discusses the effects of infrastructure investment on economic growth and its time and regional differences from the perspective of spatial overflow.Based on the theoretical analysis of the spatial spillover effect of infrastructure investment on economic growth,this paper uses 2003-2017 inter-provincial panel data for empirical analysis,and explores the spatial spillover effect of infrastructure investment on economic growth under the full sample,time period,and region.The study finds that:infrastructure investment has a significant positive spatial spillover effect;compared with 2003-2011,2012-2017 infrastructure investment showed a more prominent spatial spillover effect;there are obvious regional differences in the spatial spillover effect of infrastructure investment,with the central region performing most prominently.Combining empirical conclusions,this paper puts forward policy suggestions such as differentiated infrastructure investment strategies and priority development of infrastructure investment in the central region.