基于1972年—2017年气温观测数据的朔州冷冬气候特征分析

Analysis of Cold Winter Climate Characteristics in Shuozhou Based on Temperature Observation Data from 1972 to 2017

文章选用朔州市1972年—2017年每年12月—次年2月的气温观测资料,着重采用滑动平均,Mann-Kendall检验M-K突变分析等方法分析了近46年来朔州冷冬的气候特征。结果表明:朔州市近46年冬季气温呈现偏低-偏高的变化特征。冬季平均气温的增暖是突变现象,从1992年开始的,与气温距平变化规律较为一致。近46年朔州地区共有20次冷冬年,其中强冷冬年4次。东部和中南部平川地区发生冷冬的频次要大于西北部山区。冷冬年和强冷冬年的发生频次、发生地理位置显著正相关。冷冬年发生频次为由西到东逐渐增加的趋势,冷冻年气温距平呈现出由北向南、由西到东逐渐增大的变化规律。

Based on the temperature observation data of Shuozhou City from 1972 to 2017 from December to February of the next year,this paper analyzes the climate characteristics of Shuozhou in recent 46 years by means of moving average,Mann Kendall test and m-k mutation analysis.The results show that:the winter temperature in Shuozhou City in recent 46 years presents the characteristics of low to high.The warming of winter mean temperature is a sudden change,which started in 1992 and is consistent with the variation of temperature anomaly.In recent 46 years,there were 20 cold winter years in Shuozhou area,including 4 strong cold winter years.The frequency of cold winter in the eastern and central and southern Pingchuan areas is higher than that in the Northwest Mountainous Areas.The occurrence frequency and geographical location of cold winter year and strong cold winter year were significantly positively correlated.The occurrence frequency of cold winter year is increasing from west to east,and the temperature anomaly in freezing year is increasing from north to south and from west to east.