基于区域特征的地震埋压人员评估模型研究

Evaluation Model of Earthquake-buried Personnel Based on the Regional Characteristics

地震发生后利用已有的基础地理数据和评估模型快速准确地获得埋压人员空间分布,是地震应急救援的科学问题之一。以云南鲁甸6.5级地震为例,基于高精度公里格网人口数据,分析震区的具体特征和多种可能造成人员埋压的影响因素,并引入次生灾害埋压参数对原模型内容进行补充和改进,对现有的地震埋压人员评估模型进行优化。研究结果表明:改进后的评估模型能够快速给出地震后人员埋压空间分布,其计算结果精度较前人模型有较大提高,且考虑了次生灾害造成的埋压,能够有效增强评估模型的适用性,提升人员埋压评估精度,为地震应急指挥和应急救援提供科技支撑。

One of the scientific problems of earthquake emergency rescue is how to obtain the spatial distribution of buried personnel quickly and accurately using existing basic geographic data and evaluation models.This study took the Ludian MS6.5 earthquake in Yunnan Province as an example;based on the high-precision kilometer grid population data,the characteristics of the earthquake region and the various influencing factors that may lead to buried personnel were analyzed,and secondary disaster buried parameters were introduced to supplement and optimize the current personnel assessment model.Results indicated that the improved evaluation model could quickly show the distribution of buried personnel after an earthquake,and the accuracy of the model was greatly improved in comparison with previous models.Moreover,the applicability of the evaluation model was effectively enhanced by considering the buried personnel caused by secondary disasters.The improved model could provide technological support for emergency command and rescue during earthquakes.