基于AHP-RS组合模型的砂土液化趋势预测--以1976年唐山地震扰动区为例

Prediction of sand liquefaction trend based on AHP-RS model:case of disturbance area of Tangshan earthquake in 1976

砂土液化趋势预测是砂土液化防治的重要依据。基于层次分析(AHP)和粗糙集理论模型(RS),结合距离函数,探索性地提出了一种新的组合赋权模型(AHP-RS)。利用AHP-RS模型对唐山南部地震扰动区进行了砂土液化趋势评价,并探讨了AHP、RS、AHP-RS三种评价模型预测结果与实际液化情况的吻合性。结果表明:①AHP-RS模型得出轻微液化、中等液化面积占比49.9%,重度液化区面积占比50.1%,结果准确性较AHP和RS两种模型有较大提升;②从砂土液化轻、重等级划分范围来看,AHP-RS模型区划结果更接近实际液化分布情况,证实了AHP-RS模型的砂土液化评价预测结果具有更高的准确性和适用性,符合实际工程需要,可进一步推广应用。

Prediction of sand liquefaction trend is an important basis for sand liquefaction control.In this paper,a new combination weighting model(AHP-RS)was proposed based on the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and rough set theory model(RS),combined with the distance function.The AHP-RS model was used to evaluate the liquefaction trend of sandy soil in the southern Tangshan earthquake disturbance area,and the prediction results of the three evaluation models of AHP,RS,and AHP-RS were compared with the actual liquefaction.The results showed that:①According to AHP-RS model,mild and medium liquefaction areas accounted for 49.9%and heavy liquefaction area accounted for 50.1%,proving that the results accuracy by this method was greatly improved compared with those by AHP and RS.②From perspective of the grades classification,the division results of the AHP-RS model were closer to the actual liquefaction distribution,confirming that the prediction results of the sand liquefaction evaluation by the AHP-RS model had higher accuracy and applicability.The new model meets actual engineering needs and can be further promoted in application.