中国农地确权:一个可能被过高预期的政策

Does Rural Land Registration and Certification Promote the Development of Agricultural Factor Markets?

无论是通过土地流转以实现农业规模经营,还是通过分工深化以改善农业生产效率,均依赖于农业要素的有效流动与合理配置,而农地产权及其稳定被视为要素市场发育的关键。尽管新一轮农地确权政策被寄予厚望,但其实施绩效尚未得到充分探讨,已有的微观实证亦未能形成一致性结论。本文结合固定效应模型和双重差分倾向得分匹配(PSM-DID),利用2006~2016年中国30个省份的面板数据,对农地确权的政策效应进行评估。结果表明:第一,农地确权对于土地流转、农业劳动力非农转移和农业分工深化并未产生积极的促进作用,未能有效推进中国农地规模经营与服务规模经营的改善;第二,通过"南稻北麦"的区际比较发现,农地确权在不同区域有着不同的政策效果,但依然没有任何证据显示,农地确权能够有效推动两类区域的要素市场发育。文章的政策含义是:在推动农业要素市场发育以实现农地与服务的规模经营时,应进一步挖掘农地确权的政策红利,强化农地产权实施,盘活农地经营权。

The effective flow and proper allocation of agricultural factors play key roles in achieving agricultural scale operation by land transfer and improving agricultural production efficiency by enhancing division of labor.Farmland property rights and their stability,in turn,are considered as major contributors of blooming factor market.China had launched the rural land registration and certification with great expectations.However,its performance has not yet been fully explored.Additionally,the limited existing studies based on micro-survey data failed to reach a consensus conclusion.Then applying the fixed effect model and the double-adjustment in propensity score matching analysis(PSM-DID)with a panel data of 30 provinces in China spanning from 2006 to 2016,this paper estimates the effect of rural land registration and certification respectively on land transfer,labor mobility and division of labor in agriculture.The results indicate that:First,the rural land registration and certification has not promoted the area of land transfer,the rate of labor mobility and the deepening of division of labor in agriculture.It fails to motivate the scale up of China’s farmland operation and agricultural service in China.Second,according to the comparison,the effects of rural land registration and certification on main growing areas of rice in south China and wheat in north China are significantly different.However,there is no evidence that the rural land registration and certification can promote the development of the agricultural factor market and the proper-scale operation,either for rice production or for wheat production.The policy implication is that it is necessary to strengthen the positive effect of rural land registration and certification,improve the implementation of farmland rights,and thus motivate the transaction of farmland rights,when promoting the development of agricultural production and service factor markets as well as perusing the large-scale operation of farmland and agricultural services.