战争对清朝经济的影响——基于工商行会与人口数据的量化分析

The Impact of War on the Qing Dynasty’s Economy——A Quantitative Analysis Using Data of Industrial and Commercial Associations

长期以来,学界针对历史上战争对经济发展造成的影响这一问题,提出了基于战争破坏论的战争消极理论和基于经济复苏论的战争积极理论。然而,既有研究较少将经济学中的计量模型和统计方法用于分析战争对经济的影响。战争在清朝的历史上扮演了重要角色。丰富的工商行会数据,能够有效衡量清朝城市的经济状况。本文将计量经济学中的面板数据模型应用到战争与清朝经济发展的关联性研究中,并加入人口数据,有效衡量了战争、人口与经济发展的关系,从数理经济学的角度验证了史学家提出的战争短期消极理论和战争长期积极理论。

For a long time,the academic circle has proposed the negative theory of war based on war damage theory and the theory of war based on economic recovery theory on the impact of war on economic development in history.Existing research has not used measurement models and statistical methods in economics.The war played an important role in the history of the Qing Dynasty.The rich industry and commerce data can effectively measure the economic situation of the Qing Dynasty cities.Apply the Dynamic panel model and interception model in econometric to the correlation study between war and Qing Dynasty economic development,and add population data to measure the relationship between economic development and war and demographic changes.Thus,from the perspective of mathematical economics,the short-term negative theory of war and the long-term positive theory of war proposed by historians are verified.