滩区自然-经济-社会协同的可持续发展模式

Sustainable development model of floodplain based on coordination of nature,economy and society

黄河下游滩区既是行洪、滞洪、沉沙场所,又是滩区民众生产生活的家园。多年来滩区行洪输沙的自然功能,与社会经济发展的社会服务功能协同发展问题一直是黄河下游滩区治理关注的焦点。本文在分析黄河下游宽滩区滞洪沉沙和社会经济发展的基础上,以自然-经济-社会协调发展为目标,构建适用于黄河滩区的系统动力学模型,针对黄河下游滩区最近10年间的社会经济数据进行仿真模拟研究。基于不同来水状态下的治理方案,分析不同量级洪水对滩区经济社会系统发展产生的影响,发现构建8000 m^3/s防护堤方案对于稳定提高滩区农业收入水平具有重要作用,并提出新形势下滩区可持续发展的优化治理模式。

Floodplain of the lower Yellow River is not only a place for flood routing,flood detention and sediment silting,but also a homeland of the residents.For years,the synergetic development between the natural function of flood routing and sediment silting,and the social service function of socio-economic de⁃velopment,has always been the research focus of floodplain governance.In this paper,based on the analy⁃sis of flood detention,sediment silting and socio-economic development,a systematic dynamics model by using the last decades socio-economic data for the broad floodplain of the lower Yellow River was built,with the goals of coordinated natural,economic and social development.Then,through the model simula⁃tion,a series of development scenarios for floodplain were predicted under different conditions.Based on the treatment schemes under different inflow conditions,the impact of different magnitudes floods on the economic and social system development of the floodplain was analyzed.It is found that the construction of protection embankment scheme under the flood magnitude of 8000m^3/s plays an important role in stabilizing and improving the agricultural income level in the floodplain.Further,the improved floodplain governance schemes of sustainable development have been put forward.