新时期经济高质量发展的路径——基于产业结构与消费需求失衡背景

The path and breakthrough of high-quality economic development in the new period——Based on the unbalanced background of industrial structure and consumer demand

本文在省级面板数据基础上实证分析了2006年—2017年我国产业结构、消费需求对经济发展的影响作用。结果表明:产业结构与消费需求存在内部失衡性,城镇消费需求对经济发展具有显著促进作用,而产业结构会弱化其积极效应;农村消费增长对经济发展的作用并不显著;产业升级对经济发展表现出抑制作用,城镇消费水平的提升会遮掩其负面影响。因此,要在保障消费需求不断提升的基础上,逐步推进产业结构的优化升级,以刺激消费、扩大内需为经济高质量发展的先导驱力。

Based on provincial panel data,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of China’s industrial structure and consumer demand on economic development from 2006 to 2017.The results show that there is an internal imbalance between the industrial structure and consumer demand,and urban consumer demand has an impact on economic development.Significantly promote the effect,and the industrial structure will weaken its positive effect;the effect of rural consumption growth on economic development is not significant;industrial upgrading shows an inhibitory effect on economic development,and the increase in urban consumption level will mask its negative impact.Therefore,it is necessary to gradually promote the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure on the basis of ensuring the continuous increase in consumer demand,so as to stimulate consumption and expand domestic demand as the leading driving force for the high-quality development of the economy.