基于都市级对比的公共交通出行需求分析研究

Analysis and Research on Travel Demand of Public Transport Based on Metropolitan Comparison

选取了香港、曼哈顿、巴黎等3个世界闻名的公交都市,对其路网形态、规模以及出行结构进行了差异性的对比分析。通过设置边界条件、控制变量等手段,并运用交通规划中常用的四阶段法,在TransCAD中进行了这3个城市的公共出行模式仿真,分别做出了常规出行比例下以及路网极限承载能力下的仿真,并以拥堵道路里程占比以及拥堵道路密度这两项指标来进行仿真结果的对比分析。仿真实验表明:合理的交通出行方式结构对城市交通可持续发展起到了不可或缺的作用,并强调了公共出行方式在交通出行方式结构中的重要性。此外,该仿真结果还可以为同等规模下的城市预判交通出行方式结构、制定合理的交通供需策略提供相应的参考价值。

In the paper,three world-famous cities where the bus system is well developed are selected,a comparative analysis on the differences in road network is carried out in terms of pattern,scale,and travel structure.By setting boundary conditions,controlling variables,and using the four-stage method commonly used in transportation planning,the public travel modes of the three cities under normal travel ratios and road network ultimate carrying capacity are simulated in Trans CAD.The proportion of road mileage and the density of congested roads are used as indicators to compare and analyze the simulation results.The simulation results show that a reasonable transportation mode structure plays a decisive role in the sustainable development of urban transportation,and emphasizes the importance of public transportation in the transportation mode structure.In addition,the simulation results can also provide a reference for cities in the same scale to predict traffic structure and formulate reasonable transportation supply and demand strategies.