岛国环境流离失所者的指派研究——以马尔代夫等为例

Assignment of Environmentally Displaced Islanders in Island Countries:A Case Study of Maldives et al

全球气候变暖导致海平面上升,海拔非常低的小岛屿国家(马尔代夫等)可能面临整个岛屿被淹没的风险,其居民可能被迫成为环境流离失所者(environmental displaced persons,EDP).首先,确定了以马尔代夫等4个面临风险最大的岛国为研究对象,预测出未来30年的人口变化情况;其次,利用主成分分析法选出4个主要移民效益指标;然后,建立EDP接收国指标模型,确定8个EDP接收国;最后,建立EDP指派模型,模拟出移民方案和路径.这为相关国际机构和国家在处理EDP移民问题上提供一定的指引方向.

Global warming causes sea level rise.Particularly for those island nations located in a low-altitudes region,they are at risk of completely disappearing due to rising sea levels,and their residents may become environmentally displaced persons(EDP).Firstly,Maldives et al countries are chosen as the research subjects,and the population growth in the next 30 years are predicted.Secondly,the principal component analysis is used in the determining of four main indicators.Thirdly,an indicator model of EDP recipient countries is established to find eight EDP recipient countries.Finally,an assignment model is established to simulate the program and path of migration.Some suggestions for international organizations and countries are provided.