沙特外交政策转向中的家族政治动因

Dynamics of Family Politics in the Shift of Saudi Arabia's Foreign Policy

自2015年萨勒曼国王上台以来,沙特一改往日居中调停的稳健外交形象,在中东地区发动了一系列外交和军事攻势。与此同时,沙特王室家族内部的政治争斗迭起。作为绝对君主制国家,沙特对外政策的制定受到内外多重因素的影响。萨勒曼政权对外政策制定与王室政治的关系突出表现为,沙特家族内部的权力博弈导致执政者倾向于通过采取进攻性对外政策来转移内部压力并攫取更多权力。从历史来看,这种压力转移式集权策略并非毫无限制,而是受制于多重因素,特别是内部分裂程度与外界反应强弱的影响。

Since King Salman took office in 2015,the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has changed its traditional role as a mediator and launched a series of diplomatic and military offensives in the Middle East.Meanwhile,power struggle within the Kingdom's royal family continues.As an absolute monarchy,Saudi Arabia's policy-making process is influenced by multiple factors,the relationship between King Salman's foreign policy making and royal politics is manifested in fierce political game around power within the Saudi family.As a result,the rulers tend to adopt offensive foreign policies to transfer internal pressure to seize more power.However,historically,this pressure-transfer and power-centralized strategy was not unrestricted,it is constrained by internal and external conditions such as the internal division and external reactions.