对口帮扶的经济增长效应及政策有效性评估

Evaluation of Economic Growth Effect and Policy Effectiveness of Provincial Counterpart Assistance

首次利用2013年在广东省实施的对口帮扶政策作为准自然实验,基于2000-2018年城市面板数据,采用双重差分法评估了省内对口帮扶对城市经济增长的政策效果和作用机制。研究表明:省内对口帮扶政策显著地促进了被帮扶城市的经济增长,使得实验组比控制组的实际GDP和人均实际GDP分别提高约6.31%和8.84%,此结论在经过多重识别检验和稳健性检验后依旧成立;利用三重差分法检验政策效应的区域差异发现,对口帮扶政策在经济条件较差的地区表现出了更强的经济增长效应;省内对口帮扶政策的实施主要通过产业扶贫、金融扶贫、旅游扶贫和社会兜底保障扶贫等渠道对城市经济增长产生间接影响,而在科技扶贫、教育扶贫、社会保障兜底扶贫和农民人均纯收入提升等领域依旧需要进一步加强。

The counterpart assistance policy implemented in Guangdong Province in 2013 is used for the first time as a quasi-natural experiment.Based on the urban panel data from 2000 to 2018,this paper adopts the DID models to evaluate the effect and mechanism of the provincial counterpart assistance policy on urban economic growth.The research shows that(1)the provincial counterpart assistance policy has significantly promoted the economic growth of the assisted cities,and compared with the control group,the real GDP and real GDP per capita of the experimental group have increased by about 6.51%and 8.71%respectively.This conclusion is still valid after multiple identification tests and robustness tests.(2)By using the triple difference method to test the regional differences of policy effects,it is found that the counterpart assistance policies show stronger economic growth effects in the regions with poor economic conditions;(3)The implementation of counterpart assistance policy in the province generate indirect effects on urban economic growth mainly through the channels including industrial poverty alleviation,financial poverty alleviation,tourism poverty alleviation as well as social security poverty alleviation;and they still need to be further strengthened in science and technology poverty alleviation,educational poverty alleviation,social security poverty alleviation and the improvement of farmers per capita net income.