考虑预测不确定性的微网优化调度

A micro-grid optimal scheduling considering the prediction uncertainty

针对现有技术下由于微网中不可控微源出力预测和负荷预测均存在误差较大而引起微网优化调度结果不准确的问题,提出在传统微网经济调度模型中增加不确定性描述模型,得到不同侧重点下的微网经济优化结果,并对结果进行分析。首先,通过利用区间数描述预测不确定性,并结合隶属度函数推导容忍度概念。其次,在并网运行模式的微网结构上建立以运行成本最低为目标函数的微网优化调度模型,并将该模型转换为区间数形式表示。最后,利用粒子群优化算法并以MATLAB为主要工具对上述模型进行求解,得到微网24h出力优化区间解结果,并对结果进行详细分析。算例通过对某并网型微网进行分析,验证了所提模型的科学性和有效性。

In view of the problem that the output forecast and load forecast of uncontrollable micro sources in micro-grid have large errors existing in the current technology,the uncertainty description model is added to the traditional micro-grid economic dispatch model,and the economic optimization results of micro-grid under different emphases are obtained and analyzed.Firstly,the interval number is used to describe the prediction uncertainty,and the concept of tolerance is derived by combining the membership function.Secondly,on the micro-grid structure of grid connected operation mode,the optimal scheduling model of micro-grid with the lowest operation cost as the objective function is established,and the model is transformed into interval number form.Finally,the particle swarm optimization algorithm and MATLAB are used to solve the above model,and the results are analyzed in detail.The scientificity and validity of the proposed model are verified by analyzing a grid connected micro-grid.