缩短学制:试论“人口红利”二次开发的源头施策

Shorten Educational Years:A Strategy for the Second Development of Demographic Dividend

人口红利作为一种有“利”可图的年龄结构优势,其内生于人口转变的年龄结构变动,外扩于人口条件的制度设定。遵循“年龄结构优势”的人口红利发生原理,本文将“缩短学制”纳入人口红利二次开发的分析框架内。认为“缩短学制”不仅具有理论上的可行性,同时也有其实践上的优越性。相较于“延迟退休”,同为人口红利的二次开发,前者是源头施策,释放出充满活力的年轻劳动力,后者属末端治理,仅维系老年劳动力的在岗。利用WPP2019数据进行的实证观测表明,缩短学制使少儿抚养比降低带来的劳动年龄人口拓展效应,与延迟退休使老年抚养比下降带来的同期效应形成合力,将强化人口红利的可拓展空间。进一步讲,在保证教育质量稳定和弥补人力资源不足的前提下,“缩短学制”作为人口红利二次开发的优选项,既可以节省社会和家庭的养育成本,又有可能为提振生育率提供宝贵时间,诚是一条全新的人口红利拓展之道。

Demographic dividend,as a economic advantage of the population age structure,formed by changing age structure in demographic transition internally and social institutions of population externally.Based on formation of demographic dividend by the advantage of age structure,the paper adopts the idea of shortening educational years into an analytical framework of the second development of demographic dividend,and reveal its practicability both theoretically and practically.Comparing with the polices of delaying retirement,shortening educational years of the second development of demographic dividend is a sources strategy to make most use of the young labor force while delaying retirement is a end-treatment policy to force the old labor force continue to work.Based on the United nations data of World Population Prospects 2019,the paper demonstrate that shortening educational years can lowering children dependency ratio and expand dramatically the size of working age population,which can combine co-work with the policy of delaying retirement years by decrease the old dependency ratio to greatly expand the space of demographic dividend.Furthermore shortening educational years as priority for the second development of demographic dividend can not only save the raising costs of the young generation for both society and family,but also can enhance fertility rate by providing the couples’more time for more children.