人口流动对各省养老保险发展不均衡的影响分析

A Study of the Impacts of Population Migration on the Unbalanced Development of Provicial Elderly Pensions

在我国养老保险省级统筹的背景下,各省的养老保险发展较不均衡,一些经济发达地区的养老保险基金有大量结余,一些欠发达地区却收不抵支。为缩小这种差距,国务院多次强调要尽快实现养老保险全国统筹。本文通过年龄移算法和聚类分析法,结合现行的养老保险政策研究,发现人口流动改变着各省的人口年龄、类别(本地人口与流动人口)和质量(不同教育程度人口)结构,三者都是养老保险发展不均衡的重要因素。经济发达地区在这三方面形成了累积优势,与欠发达地区的差距越来越大。其中,人口年龄与人口质量结构的影响是人口规律的体现,而人口类别结构的影响则是由养老保险转移政策的倾向性带来的。本文认为,养老保险全国统筹可以从调整养老保险转移政策开始,通过人口流动来降低地区不均衡,最终走向全国统筹。

As China’s elder pensioners are overall managed by its provinces,the provincial elder pensions have great difference,i.e.large balance of the elder pensions in developed provinvces while great deficits in under-developed province.The central government emphasizes the new police of elder pensions by nation-wide management.Our study,based on the age shifting algorithms and clustering analysis as well as the reviews of existing elder support policie,shows that population migration changed the population structures of age,the local and migrants and the quality(the educational structure),which are the main reasons to cause the unbalance of provicial elder pensions systems.The devoloped provinces boast of the accomulated advantages in all the three population structures and enlarge increasively the gap against the under-developed provinces.Among them,the population structure of age and quality is the differential factors of population laws while the structure of the local and migrant is the police facters to shape the elder pensions gap.The findings imply that the unified system of a nation-wide elder pensions can start from the according shift of citizen’s elder pensions together with his or her migration.