中国物价波动研究与货币政策规则选择——基于开放经济DSGE模型

Chinese Price Fluctuation and the Choice of Monetary Policy Rules Based on the DSGE Models of Open Economy

构建适合中国国情的开放经济DSGE模型,分析利率规则、货币供应规则和货币政策混合规则下各外生冲击对我国物价波动的影响。通过脉冲响应分析发现:本国厂商生产技术进步、国外实际利率上升、外汇市场风险溢价增加引起本国物价下降,本国消费偏好增加、本国政府实际支出增加、国外消费物价上涨、国外总需求增加、本国名义货币供应增长率上升引起本国物价上涨;当出现通胀时,政府应采取提高本国名义利率的方式抑制本国物价;相较于其他规则利率规则各外生冲击对本国物价的影响周期更短。通过方差分解分析发现:供给冲击是影响我国物价波动的最重要因素,其中国外消费物价指数冲击对本国物价的影响幅度长期最大,其次是本国厂商生产技术冲击;本国名义货币供应增长率冲击影响幅度远远大于本国名义利率冲击;货币政策相较于财政政策对稳定物价更有效。最后根据结论提出稳定物价的建议。

The DSGE model of open economy suitable for China’s national conditions is constructed to analyze the impact of exogenous shocks on China’s price fluctuation under the mixed rules of interest rate rule, money supply rule and monetary policy.According to the impulse response analysis, it is found that domestic prices fall as a result of the technological progress of domestic manufacturers, the increase of foreign real interest rate and the increase of risk premium in foreign exchange market.The increase of domestic consumption preference,the increase of domestic government real expenditure,the increase of foreign consumer prices,the increase of foreign aggregate demand, and the increase of domestic nominal money supply growth rate cause the increase of domestic prices.When inflation arises, governments should restrain prices by raising domestic nominal interest rates.Compared with other interest rate rules, each exogenous shock has a shorter impact on domestic prices.The variance decomposition analysis shows that supply shock is the most important factor affecting the price fluctuation in China,among which the impact of foreign consumer price index on domestic prices is the largest in the long run,followed by the impact of domestic manufacturers’ production technology.The impact of domestic nominal money supply growth rate is much larger than that of domestic nominal interest rate.Monetary policy is more effective at stabilizing prices than fiscal policy.Finally according to the conclusion put forward the suggestion of stabilizing prices.