摘要
Objective:To explore the feasibility of using grey model GM(1,1)model to predict syphilis,and to provide a theoretical basis for the health sector to develop corresponding strategies.Methods:GM(1,1)model was used to construct and simulate the incident rate and case number of syphilis in China from 2009 to 2018 to predict the change trend.Results:The GM(1,1)prediction model of syphilis incident rate was x^(1)(k+1)=929.367901 e(0.029413k)-906.297901.The GM(1,1)prediction model for the number of syphilis patients was x^(1)(k+1)=1060.278025 e(0.034280k)-1029.639925.For syphilis incidence model,the posterior difference ratio was 0.19819 and the probability of small error was 1.For the syphilis incident number model,the posterior difference ratio was 0.18450 and the probability of small error was 1.The above models have good fitting accuracy with excellent grade level and can be predicted by extrapolation and predicted that the syphilis incidence in 2019-2021 may be 36.15 per 100,000,37.23 per 100,000 and 38.34 per 100,000,respectively.From 2019 to 2021,the number of incident syphilis cases in China may be 503,406,520,962 and 539,130,respectively.Conclusion:The GM(1,1)model can well fit and predict the change trend of syphilis incidence in time series.The prediction model showed that the incidence of syphilis may continue to increase and the number of syphilis cases per year may continue to increase substantially.More effort is needed to strengthen the prevention and treatment of venereal disease,reduce venereal harm to the population and improve the early detection rate of syphilis.
