2020年上半年天然橡胶期货市场分析及后市展望

Analysis of Natural Rubber Futures Market in the First Half of 2020 and Future Prospects

2020年上半年天然橡胶期货市场走势主要分为两个阶段:1—3月受新冠肺炎疫情影响市场持续暴跌,4—6月天然橡胶价格开始从低位缓慢上涨。2020年下半年,预计天然橡胶的供应和需求都将呈现环比增长但同比下降的态势,从全球角度来看天然橡胶的供需矛盾不明显,但国内因天然橡胶进口量偏大会出现阶段性供需失衡,天然橡胶价格有再次探底的可能。在供应端,下半年东南亚的天然橡胶生产将迎来产量回升以及高产期,下半年天然橡胶产量的同比降幅将小于上半年。国内供应压力主要来自于进口,7月以后替代种植进口配额的入关将会导致天然橡胶进口量再度明显增长,第3季度国内供应压力巨大。同时,国内天然橡胶库存量巨大,将对天然橡胶价格产生压制。在需求端,4—5月国内轮胎等下游企业开工回补以及终端采购回补需求表现明显。海外订单存在停滞后的回补需求。各国的经济刺激政策带来远期需求增长预期。从总体来看,2020年第3季度供过于求的概率较大,而第4季度随着利空的出尽、经济复苏预期的抬头、全乳胶产量减小,天然橡胶价格可能显著震荡回升。泰国混合胶现货价格预计在9000~11000元·t-1区间震荡,且7—8月震荡重心偏低,第4季度震荡重心偏高。

In the first half of 2020,the trend of natural rubber futures market could be divided into two stages.Affected by the COVID-19 epidemic,the market continued to plummet from January to March.However,natural rubber prices increased slowly from April to June.In the second half of 2020,the supply and demand of natural rubber are expected to increase month-on-month,but decrease year-on-year.From a global perspective,the contradiction between supply and demand of natural rubber is not obvious.However,due to the large import of natural rubber in China,there will be a periodic imbalance between supply and demand,and the price of natural rubber is likely to bottom out again.On the supply side,in the second half of the year,the natural rubber production in Southeast Asia will enter a period of increasing and high-yield.The year-on-year decrease in natural rubber production in the second half of the year will be less than that in the first half of the year.The domestic natural rubber supply pressure mainly comes from imports.After July,the import quota of alternative planting will lead to a significant increase in natural rubber imports again.The domestic natural rubber supply pressure is high in the third quarter.The domestic natural rubber inventory is huge,which will suppress the price.On the demand side,from April to May,domestic tire and other downstream enterprises’demand for start-up and terminal purchase was obvious.There is a demand for replenishment of overseas orders after stagnation.The economic stimulus policies of various countries will bring forward the expectation of long-term demand growth.On the whole,the probability of oversupply is high in the third quarter of 2020.In the fourth quarter,as the negative effects are exhausted,the expectation of economic recovery rises and the production of new SCR-WF decreases,natural rubber price may rebound in a marked volatile manner.The spot price of Thailand mixed rubber is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9000~11000 yuan per ton,and the focus of fluctuation is low from July to August and will be high in the fourth quarter.