财政透明对政府债务的影响:基于省级面板数据的实证研究

Fiscal Transparency and Local Government Debt:An Empirical Study Based on Provincial Panel Data

中国经济进入"新常态",在此背景下,地方政府债务风险问题也日益突出,如何抑制地方政府债务规模的过度扩张成为一个亟待关注和解决的问题。基于2008—2016年中国省级层面的面板数据,综合采用随机效应模型和系统GMM模型,实证检验了财政透明度对地方政府债务规模的影响。分析结果表明,财政透明度与地方人均债务额和债务率之间均存在倒U型关系,且这一关系的拐点出现在财政透明度取值为41-44之间。因此,地方政府必须进一步提升财政信息公开的水平和质量,强化公众对政府财政行为的监督,从而有效控制政府债务规模扩张,降低政府债务风险。

Along with China’s economy entering a period of"new normal",the problem of local governments’debt risks has become increasingly prominent.How to curb the excessive expansion of local government debt has become an issue in need of urgent attention and solution.Based on the panel data at the provincial level in China from 2008 to 2016,a random effect model and a system GMM model were used to empirically test the impact of fiscal transparency on the debt level of local government.The analysis results show that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between fiscal transparency and debt level(measured by per capita debt and debt rate),and the inflection point of this relationship occurs when the fiscal transparency score is between 41 and 44.Therefore,local governments must further improve the level and quality of financial information disclosure and strengthen public supervision of government financial behaviors,so as to effectively control the expansion and reduce the risk of government debts.