人口老龄化、城镇化与居民消费

On Population Aging,Urbanization,and Residents′Consumption

随着中国经济的深度调整,内需成为转型成功与否的关键因素之一。基于CHARLS数据分析人口老龄化、城镇化对居民消费的影响,结合实证研究可知:老龄人口尤其是年龄较大人口城镇化能够显著提升消费水平;受教育水平越高的城镇居民,其消费水平也较高,说明受教育水平越高的群体从城镇化中获益更多。因此,政策的着力点不仅应关注转移人口的城镇化,而应通过放开户籍制度和公共服务改革,促进老龄人口城镇化,抑制人口老龄化对居民消费的不利影响,为我国经济增长可持续性创造条件。

With the deep adjustment of China′s economy,domestic demand has become one of the key factors for the success of transformation.This paper analyzes the influence of population aging and urbanization on residents′consumption with the CHARLS data.Empirical results show that an ageing population,especially elderly population urbanization,can significantly improve the level of consumption.The consumption level of urban residents with higher education level is also high,which suggests that the group with higher education benefits more from urbanization.Therefore,the policy focus should be placed not only on the urbanization of the transferred population,but also on lifting the control of the household registration system and promoting public service reform,to accelerate the urbanization of the elderly population while inhibiting the adverse impact of population aging on residents′consumption,and create conditions for the sustainability of China′s economic growth.