汇率对企业杠杆率影响的机理与效应:来自中国企业的证据

Mechanism and Effects of Exchange Rate Movements on Corporate Leverage Ratio:Evidence from Chinese Firms

本文在Melitz模型中引入汇率与中间品要素,结合融资优序理论建立了汇率与企业杠杆率两者间关系的理论模型,揭示了本币升值通过企业盈利水平影响杠杆率变动的内在机理,并使用中国制造业企业数据对不同类型的杠杆率进行经验检验。结果显示:人民币升值显著降低企业杠杆率,尤其是总账面杠杆率、短期账面杠杆率和总市值杠杆率;杠杆率的下降程度与企业的进出口行为相关;并且还受企业异质性因素(所有制结构、技术与生产率水平和融资约束)的影响。此外,从微观机制检验中还发现:盈利效应和调整效应分别是导致不同类型企业、不同类型杠杆率降幅差异的原因。本文从微观层面证明了汇率在企业融资决策中的重要作用,为供给侧结构性去杠杆提供有益的参考。

This paper establishes a theoretical model of the relationship between exchange rate and the corporate leverage ratio,along with the financing priority theory,by incorporating exchange rates and intermediates as elements into the Melitz model(2003),revealing the internal mechanism of local currency appreciation through corporate profitability that affects the change in the leverage ratio.It uses data from Chinese manufacturing firms to conduct empirical testing on different types of leverage ratios,finding that the appreciation of the renminbi significantly reduces the corporate leverage ratio,especially the total book leverage ratio,the short-term book leverage ratio and the total market capitalization leverage ratio,with the degree of decline related to the import and export behaviour of firms,and the impact of firms'heterogeneity(ownership structure,technology and productivity levels and financing constraints)on this mechanism.In addition,it is noted that the profit and adjustment effects are the reasons for the difference in decline between different types of firms and the different types of leverage ratios by the micromechanism test.The paper demonstrates the important role of exchange rates in corporate financing decision-making on the micro level and provides a useful reference for supply-side structural deleveraging.