生育数量是否影响子女受教育水平:来自人口抽样调查的证据

Does Birth Quantity Affect Children's Educational Attainment?Evidence from Chinese Population Census

本文利用2015年1%人口抽样数据,基于广义罗伊模型估计中国农村家庭生育数量对子女受教育水平的边际处理效应。研究发现,生育数量对农村家庭长子女受教育水平的影响存在根本异质性,随着生育意愿下降,生育数量对受教育水平的负向影响增加。平均处理效应、处理组平均处理效应和非处理组平均处理效应的估计结果表明,生育数量对已经生育二孩家庭的长子女受教育年限影响较小,对潜在生育二孩家庭的长子女受教育年限负向影响较大。在此基础上,本文对全面二孩政策进行了政策相关处理效应模拟,发现实施全面二孩政策后,生育二孩将导致生育意愿较低家庭的长子女受教育水平下降。本文结论对未来中国多元化生育政策的制定具有重要启示。

This paper estimates the marginal treatment effect of the birth quantity on the educational attainment of children in Chinese rural households,based on the 1%Chinese Population Census data in 2015 and the Generalized Roy Model.The results show that the impact of the number of children on the first child's education years is essentially heterogeneous.The lower the willingness to give birth in rural families,the larger the negative impact on the first child's educational attainment.The results of the average treatment effect,the effect of treatment on the treated and the effect of treatment on the untreated show that having two or more children would have slighter effect on those families already have two or more children,and have larger negative effect on those families with single child.This paper further simulates the policy effect of the universal two-child policy and estimates the policy-related treatment effect.The results show that if families with fewer willingness to give birth had two or more children,the educational attainment of their first child would decline 1.6-1.9 year.