关税冲击下的中间品贸易、通货膨胀目标规则与福利分析

Intermediate Trade,Inflation Targeting Rules and Welfare Analysis in the Context of Tariff Shocks

本文在非合作框架下建立引入中间品生产和贸易的新凯恩斯两国模型,研究关税冲击下各国的通胀目标规则,讨论加征关税和通胀政策对宏观经济的影响。本文研究表明,在各国福利损失中,相较于最终品,国内中间品通胀扭曲具有更大权重;在外国加征中间品或最终品进口关税条件下,相较于稳定其他通胀指标,本国采取稳定中间品PPI通胀的规则可以有效降低自身经济波动,最小化本国福利损失;外国对不同类型产品加征进口关税,虽然能够提升其相应类型产品的产出和就业,但会导致显著的消费恶化和福利下降。因此从经济层面看,外国单方面加征关税是短视的,会导致两败俱伤的后果。在关税冲击下本国应更加关注国内中间品通胀的稳定,对等加征关税的反制措施只能部分缓解本国经济波动,平等协商才是解决贸易争端的有效途径。

This paper examines the inflation targeting rules in the context of tariff shocks within a non-cooperative framework,based on a two-country Keynesian model that introduces intermediate production and trade.The study shows that in the welfare losses of the countries concerned,compared to the final products,the distortion of inflation in domestic intermediates has greater weight,and when foreign countries impose additional tariffs on intermediate or final products,the home country should take steps to stabilize the PPI inflation of intermediates and effectively reduce economic fluctuations,attempting to minimize welfare losses.As a short-sighted and internecine policy,the imposition of additional tariffs by foreign countries increases their output and employment,but leads to a serious deterioration in consumption,resulting in a more significant welfare loss in foreign countries.Equality-based consultation and negotiation are the effective means of resolving such trade disputes.