劳动年龄人口变化及其影响因素分析——以广州市为例

Analysis on the Changes of the Working-age Population in Guangzhou and Its Contributory Factors

劳动年龄人口是总人口中最具有生产力和创造力的群体,是参与经济发展的主要力量。研究表明,2000—2010年广州市劳动年龄人口规模呈跳跃式增长,但2010年以来劳动年龄人口增长速度放缓,劳动年龄人口比重开始下降,预示“刘易斯拐点”出现,劳动力无限供给的时代即将结束。2000—2015年广州市劳动年龄人口的年龄结构趋于老化,劳动年龄人口的素质在提高,就业人口总量上升,但增速明显放缓。研究显示,广州市劳动年龄人口的变动受到常住人口规模和人口出生规模的影响。人口迁移流动提升了广州市劳动年龄人口的数量并优化了劳动年龄人口的结构。广州市劳动参与率高,对周边地区劳动力产生了一定的“拉力”作用。

The working-age population is the most productive and creative group of the total population as well as a major force in economic development.Research shows that Guangzhou’s working-age population has grown by leaps and bounds from 2000 to 2010,but the speed of growth has slowed and the proportion of age structure has dropped since 2010,indicating the beginning of Lewis Turning Point and heralding the end of an era of unlimited labor supply.From 2000 to 2015,the age structure of Guangzhou’s working-age population has been aging,the educational attainment increasing,and the amount of employment population has grown but growth rate has slowed markedly.Studies show that changes in the working age population are influenced by such factors as the size of the resident population and the amount of population birth.Migration has increased the number of working-age population and optimized its structure.Guangzhou’s high labor participation rate has a certain pulling effect on the labor force in the surrounding areas.