基于政策量化的我国耕地保护政策效果评价

Evaluation of the Effects of Cultivated Land Protection Policies in China Based on Policy Quantification

【目的】通过政策量化,定量评价1996—2017年我国耕地保护政策效果,计算耕地保护政策贡献率,检验耕地保护政策发挥的作用,为发展和完善耕地保护政策体系提供依据。【方法】从政策力度、政策目标、政策措施3个维度对在1996—2017年内起作用的耕地保护相关政策进行量化,计算研究期内每年的耕地保护政策强度指数,结合耕地面积和耕地保护相关社会经济因素,构建多元线性回归分析模型,在对我国耕地保护政策发展历程梳理的基础上,根据模型定量分析1996—2017年耕地保护政策效果。【结果】1996—2017年我国耕地保护政策保护了相当于2017年1.59%的耕地,占1996—2017年耕地减少总量的24.47%;1996—2003年我国耕地保护政策保护的耕地相当于期间耕地面积减少总量的18.14%;2003—2017年我国耕地保护政策保护了相当于2017年0.70%的耕地,占2003—2017年耕地减少总量的44.37%。【结论】我国耕地保护政策切实有效,在耕地保护工作中发挥了重要作用,需长期坚持;经过长时间的积累和发展,我国耕地保护政策的数量保护体系在2003年后逐渐完善、成熟,今后在把更多精力放在耕地质量、生态保护的同时,应继续维持或强化耕地数量保护的力度。

【Objective】The study was to quantitatively evaluate the effects of cultivated land protection policies in China from 1996 to 2017 through policy quantification,and to calculate the contribution rate of cultivated land protection policies.Then an evaluation of the effect of cultivated land protection policies in China was carried out to provide references for developing and strengthening cultivated land protection policy system.【Method】The policies related to cultivated land protection in 1996-2017 were quantified from three aspects of policy strength,policy objective,and policy measure,and the annual cultivated land protection policy intensity index during the study period was calculated,then a multiple linear regression analysis model was constructed on the combination of the cultivated land area and social and economic factors that related to cultivated land protection.On the basis of combing the development history of cultivated land protection policies in China,the effects of cultivated land protection policies from 1996 to 2017 was quantitatively analyzed according to the model.【Result】From 1996 to 2017,cultivated land protection policies in China had protected the equivalent of 1.59%of cultivated land in 2017,accounting for 24.47%of the total decrease in cultivated land area from 1996 to 2017;from 1996 to 2003,cultivated land protection policies in China had protected 18.14%of the total decrease in cultivated land area from 1996 to 2003;from 2003 to 2017,cultivated land protection policies in China had protected the equivalent of 0.70%of cultivated land in 2017,accounting for 44.37%of the total decrease in cultivated land area from 2003 to 2017.【Conclusion】Cultivated land protection policies in China are effective,and they have played an important role in the cultivated land protection work for more than 20 years.It needs to be persisted for a long time.After a long period of accumulation and development,cultivated land quantity protection policy system in China has gradually been improved after 2003.In the future,while putting more effort to the quality and ecological protection of cultivated land,the protection of the quantity of cultivated land should continue to be maintained or strengthened.