基于共因失效的多态系统灰色贝叶斯网络可靠性分析模型

Grey Bayesian network model for reliability analysis of multi-state systems based on common cause failure

针对传统可靠性分析方法在复杂系统可靠性分析中存在的问题,对实际机械系统中广泛存在的共因失效和多态故障现象,提出将灰色系统理论中的区间灰数引入贝叶斯网络模型中,用区间灰数描述部件处于半失效状态的模糊性以及部件和系统之间逻辑关系的不确定性,建立了基于共因失效的多态系统灰色贝叶斯网络可靠性分析模型,提升了贝叶斯网络解决不确定性问题的能力。通过对某航空发动机压气机转子系统进行建模分析,验证了新模型的可用性。

In order to overcome the disadvantages of traditional reliability analysis methods in complex systems,it is proposed to introduce the interval gray number in the grey system theory into the Bayesian network model to analyze the common cause failures and multi-state failure phenomena in the actual mechanical systems.In this paper,the interval gray number was used to describe the ambiguity of the component in the semi-failure state and the uncertainty of the logical relationship between the component and the system.The grey Bayesian network model for reliability analysis based on the common cause failure was established to improve the ability of the Bayesian network for solving uncertainty problems.The availability of the new model was verified by modeling and analyzing an aero-engine compressor rotor system.