城乡“二元”结构下劳动力暂时性转移与家庭储蓄行为

Temporary Migration and Family Saving Behavior under the Dual Structure of Urban and Rural

在构建农村劳动力暂时性转移与农户家庭储蓄行为模型的基础上,采用山西农村固定观察点农户跟踪调查数据(2003—2017),运用SYS-GMM估计方法实证分析了返乡可能性对家庭储蓄率的影响,结果发现:第一,劳动力返乡可能性对家庭储蓄率有显著正向影响,即转移劳动力返乡可能性越高,其储蓄率也越高,并且结论经过稳健性检验仍然成立。第二,在城乡“二元”结构下,暂时性劳动力流动是导致农户家庭储蓄率上升的主要原因,因此二元结构是导致中国农村家庭储蓄率不断上升的结构性因素。第三,从转移劳动力与家庭储蓄率的正相关关系看,中国城乡二元融合程度还较低,到2020年实现1亿农民工市民化的任务还很艰巨。引申的政策含义是:推动户籍人口城镇化,让更多的劳动力举家永久性迁徙对于扩大内需有积极作用,而农村不完全不彻底的暂时性转移反而提高了家庭储蓄率,抑制了消费。

Based on the modelling of the temporary transfer of rural labor force and the rural households savings behavior,this paper adopts the rural household tracking survey data(2003—2017)of rural fixed observation points in Shanxi,and uses the SYS-GMM estimation method to empirically analyze the possibility of returning home to household savings.The results show that:First,the possibility of labor returning to the hometown has a significant positive impact on the household savings rate,that is,the higher the possibility of the transferred labor returning to the hometown,the higher the savings rate,and the conclusion is still valid after the robustness test.Second,under the urban-rural"dual"structure,temporary labor mobility is the main reason for the increase in the savings rate of rural households.Therefore,the dual structure is a structural factor that causes the rising savings rate of rural households in China.Third,from the perspective of the positive correlation between labor transfer and household savings rate,China's urban-rural dual integration is still relatively low,and the task of realizing 100 million migrant workers as citizens by 2020 is still very difficult.The extended policy implication is that to promote the urbanization of the registered population and allow more permanent family migration of labor to have a positive effect on expanding domestic demand,while the incomplete and incomplete temporary transfer of rural areas has increased the household savings rate and suppressed consumption.