基于统计分析的风气能源基地远距离直流输电方案规划

Long Distance DC Transmission Scheme Planning for Energy Base of Wind-Gas Based on Statistical Analysis

风电资源的大规模开发及天然气在一次能源的消费比重不断提高,给电力系统规划和运行带来新的挑战。为将大容量风电输送到数千千米外的负荷中心,采用具有远距离、大容量、低损耗输电能力的特高压直流输电系统。针对含丰富风电和天然气资源的能源基地远距离输电,提出了基于置信水平的风气输电容量统计分析方法,综合考虑源端风气综合能源出力的随机性、输电方案的经济技术环境及受端系统承受能力等方面的因素,构建了风气能源基地的远距离直流输电评估指标体系,并基于改进前景理论法对风气远距离直流输电系统候选方案进行综合优选。在算例分析中,通过灵敏度方法分析了不同输电方案的适用范围,并验证了所提规划方案的优越性,为大容量能源远距离直流输送规划的科学决策提供参考。

The large-scale development of wind power resources and the increasing proportion of natural gas consumption in primary energy have brought newchallenges to the planning and operation of power systems.In order to transmit largecapacity wind power to load centers thousands of kilometers away,UHV DC transmission systems with long-distance,largecapacity,and low-loss power transmission capabilities are adopted.This paper proposes a statistical analysis method of windgas transmission capacity based on the confidence level for long-distance transmission of energy bases with abundant wind power and natural gas resources.Considering comprehensive various factors such as randomness of energy output,economic,technical and environmental nature of transmission scheme,and endurance capacity of receiving end system,a long-distance DC transmission evaluation index system is established for the wind-gas energy base.According to improved prospect theory,candidate schemes for HVDC transmission systems are comprehensively optimally selected.In the example analysis,the application scope of different transmission schemes is analyzed by the sensitivity method,and the superiority of the proposed planning scheme is verified,which provides a reference for scientific decision-making of large-capacity longdistance DC transmission planning.