中国投资回报率的国际比较及启示

本文运用公式估测出我国的存款、国债、股票及房产回报率,并将其综合为安全回报率与风险回报率,旨在通过对比不同资产的投资回报率对危机的敏感程度,指导企业和家庭作出合理的投资选择。研究发现:在我国,存款相较于其他三种资产更适合规避通货膨胀;房产回报率远高于国内其他资产及其他国家房产,同时风险也较大,反映出我国房地产市场存在投机行为;我国的安全回报率与风险回报率均在经济危机时剧烈波动,相较之下经济增长率较为平稳,而且危机频发的近30年间“金砖国家”的资产回报率均远低于其经济增长率,反映出资产回报率对经济危机的敏感程度更强。

The paper uses the formula to calculate the rates of return of deposit,treasury bonds,stocks and real estate in China,and integrates them into the safe rates of return and the risky rates of return,as to guide businesses and families to make reasonable investment choices by comparing the sensitivity of return on investment of different assets to crisis.The study indicates that deposits are more suitable to avoid inflation than other kinds of assets in China;the rate of return on real estate is much higher than that of other domestic assets and other countries,and the risk is also greater,which reflects that there are speculative behaviors in the real estate market;China's rate of return on security and return on risk fluctuated sharply during the economic crisis,and by contrast,the economic growth rate is more stable,and the rate of return on assets of the BRICS countries has been far lower than their economic growth rates in the past 30 years with frequent crises,reflecting that the rate of return on assets is more sensitive to the economic crisis.