基于过度自信的零售商存货质押融资决策

The Decision-Making of Inventory Financing Based on Overconfident Retailer

企业对需求过度自信造成需求理解偏差,误导了企业的决策,从而造成存货质押融资决策与理性行为下的决策存在差异.针对考虑过度自信心理行为的存货质押融资决策问题,建立含销售努力、采购量与质押比例的过度自信零售商决策模型,并探讨需求期望值过高估计和需求预测过度精确对零售商销售努力投入、采购量与货物质押比例的影响.研究表明:当零售商具有过度自信心理行为时,其所需要的资金量越大;零售商过度自信程度越高,其质押比例越高;零售商的销售努力和采购量随着其过度自信程度的增加而增加,且预期期望利润与实际期望利润的偏差也随之变大;期望需求自信度引起质押比例、销售努力和货物采购量的变化比需求预测精度自信度引起的变化更大.

The overconfidence of the enterprise on the demand causes the demand understanding deviation,which misleads the enterprise′s decision.There will be deviation between inventory financing decision under the background of overconfidence and inventory financing decision under the rationality.Aiming at the problem of inventory financing decision under overconfidence,the decision model is constructed about sales efforts,order quantity and the proportion of the pledge for the overconfidence retailer under the condition that is out of fund,and the impact of two kinds of overconfidence degree which include high estimation of capacity and excessive precision of estimation on the decision variables is analyzed.The results show that the overconfident retailers are more radical on inventory financing,and the retailers′demand on capital increase with the increase of the degree of overconfidence.The overconfidence causes the higher proportion of pledge,more efforts and more procurement.Furthermore,the overconfidence brings the greater the deviation between the expected profits and the actual profit.The change of proportion of pledge,sale effort and order quantity caused by the overconfidence of high estimation of capacity is greater than those caused by the overconfidence of excessive precision of demand estimation.