基于农户尺度的鄱阳湖平原水稻多熟种植现状及其驱动因素分析

The Analysis of the Current Status and Driving Factors ofRice Plantation in the Poyang Lake Plain Based on the Scale of Farmers

该文以多熟种植典型区域——江西省鄱阳湖地区为例,基于农户问卷调查资料和Logistic回归模型,分析了该地区水稻熟制的现状特征及其影响因素.研究结果表明:(i)在研究区内约66.47%的受访农户选择多熟种植的耕作模式且存在明显的地域差异;(ii)农户水稻多熟种植模式的选择主要受灌溉条件、地块面积、家庭规模、微地貌类型、农户对农业补贴的评价、非农总收入、旱灾等因素的影响;(iii)灌溉条件、地块面积、家庭规模、微地貌类型、农业补贴与农户水稻熟制的选择呈显著正相关,而不断爆发的旱灾频度和非农总收入的增多对水稻的多熟种植具有明显的抑制作用;(iv)未来政府应加强水利设施建设,加大政策扶持力度,因地制宜地引导农民进行多熟种植,以保障区域粮食安全.

Based on the survey data from farmers in the Poyang Lake Plain,the potential mechanism of the variation in cropping intensity is discussed in the Poyang Lake Plain using the binary logistic regression model.The results are as follows.(i)66.47%of the surveyed farmers in the study area employ multiple cropping and there is obvious spatial heterogeneity in terms of cropping intensity.(ii)Farmers′behaviors are mainly affected by irrigation conditions,land area,household size,micro-geomorphic landforms,farmers′evaluation of agricultural subsidies,non-agricultural incomes and the drought.(iii)Irrigation conditions,land area,household size,micro-geomorphic landforms and farmers′evaluation of agricultural subsidies are positively correlated with multiple cropping intensity,while the left two factors played obvious negative role on it.(iv)Local governments should ensure adequate water resources by strengthening the construction of basic facilities.It is necessary to make informed decisions depending on local conditions,especially areas with varies types of micro-geomorphology.By establishing favorable policy,local governments can be able to guide farmers for increasing cropping intensity,thereby securing food supplies.