2020年9月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China,September

目的评估2020年9月在我国大陆地区发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果总体上,随着学校开学,预计9月突发公共卫生事件的报告数将较8月略有上升。目前,全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情仍呈高流行态势,我国境内全部恢复低风险水平,发生境外输入病例及其续发风险持续存在,但在可控范围内。鼠疫不排除出现散发病例以及远距离传播疫情和境外输入疫情的可能。诺如病毒感染性腹泻可能在学校和托幼机构出现暴发疫情。食物中毒仍处于高发期。刚果民主共和国埃博拉病毒病疫情输入我国的风险低。结论需要对新型冠状病毒肺炎予以特别关注,对鼠疫、诺如病毒感染性腹泻、食物中毒和刚果民主共和国埃博拉病毒病予以一般关注。

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies,both the indigenous ones and the imported ones,which might occur in the mainland of China in September 2020.Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels,and the experts in all provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this conference through video terminal.Results Generally speaking,it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies would be slightly higher in September than in August as school reopening season.At present,the global COVID-19 pandemic is still going on,and China has returned to be at the low risk.The risk of imported cases and secondary infections of COVID-19 would continue to exist,but it would be controllable.The possibility of sporadic cases,long-distance transmissions and imported cases of plague would not be ruled out.Outbreaks of norovirus infectious diarrhea might occur in schools and child care settings.The incidence of food poisoning would continue to be high.The risk of Ebola virus disease(EVD)spread from the Democratic Republic of Congo to China would be low.Conclusion Special attention should be paid to COVID-19,and general attention should be paid to plague,norovirus infectious diarrhea,food poisoning,and EVD in the Democratic Republic of Congo.