基于SI和SD理论的震后紧急疏散需求演化特性研究

Methods for Forecasting Evolution Characteristics after Earthquake Based on SI and SD Theory

针对不同功能用地的片区内人员构成多样性造成了地震后城市区域疏散需求的差异性的问题,从宏观角度即疏散需求形成的机理出发,考虑地震灾害特征、区域环境特征、人员特征对地震疏散需求的影响,通过分析人员类型、地震烈度、疏散模式、道路通行能力四方面因素,基于SI理论建立了疏散需求演化数学模型,并通过算例应用对震后疏散需求演化特性进行了剖析并得到了相应的结论.其次,从人员运动的微观角度,考虑到疏散过程中的动态反馈关联及各类型人员时空的变化特征,基于系统动力学理论建立了疏散需求预测动态反馈模型.依据模型对不同地震发生时刻及不同用地功能的疏散单元进行对比模拟,可以更加直观的模拟出人员疏散演化特性.综上研究为震后疏散需求预测研究提供一定依据.

For the differences in evacuation requirements of different functional lands after earthquake,from the view of formation mechanism of evacuation demand curve,the mathematical model of evacuation demand curve was established based on the SI model with considering four factors including personnel types,seismic intensity,evacuation mode and road capacity.In addition,considering the dynamic feedback correlation between different types of personnel during the evacuation and the changing characteristics of space at any time,the dynamic feedback model of evacuation demand prediction was established based on the system dynamics theory.At last,the sensitivity of the parameter variables in the model was analyzed,and the results and characteristics of the model were analyzed by an example.This study provides a new research idea for the prediction of post-earthquake evacuation demand.