白洋淀区域景观格局动态变化及趋势分析

Analysis of dynamic changes and trends in the landscape pattern of the Baiyangdian Region

湿地景观格局的动态变化研究是构建区域生态安全格局的重要基础。利用1980、1990、2000、2010、2017年等5期土地利用数据,分析了白洋淀区域景观类型的时空变化过程及其主要驱动因素,并结合相关规划探讨了白洋淀未来景观格局变化及影响。结果表明,白洋淀区域景观规模和结构在1980—2000年期间变化不显著。2000—2017年期间,滩地向耕地、建设用地和湖泊大面积转换,湿地景观面积占比从78%下降到60%。2017—2030年期间,耕地和建设用地向湖泊转换,湿地景观面积占比将会达到90%;1980—2017年期间,滩地景观优势度最大,分布集中,但形状也最为复杂,各景观连通性走势较为平稳。景观尺度的破碎度不断升高,连通性和丰富度分别在1990年和2017年达到最大值。未来2030年,湖泊会成为优势景观类型,斑块分布集中且连通性增强,但复杂性增大。区域景观尺度的连通性变小,空间分布不均匀,丰富度降低;白洋淀景观格局历史演变主要受社会经济因素的影响,主成分分析结果表示其解释度为62.00%。未来气候条件下,白洋淀湿地生态系统存在退化的风险,但规划实施的环境治理和生态修复措施会对白洋淀的景观格局变化起主导作用。研究成果可为白洋淀湿地的规划管理和雄安新区的生态安全格局构建提供参考。

The study of dynamic changes in the landscape pattern of wetlands is an important basis for building a regional ecological security pattern.Baiyangdian Lake,as an important ecological source of ecological security pattern construction in Xiongan New Area,has irreplaceable value.Using land use data in 1980,1990,2000,2010,and 2017,this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial change process of landscape types and their main driving factors in the Baiyangdian region,and discusses the future landscape changes and their effects with the relevant planning of the Xiongan New Area.The results showed that the scale and structure of the regional landscape of the Baiyangdian region changed little during the 1980—2000.During the 2000—2017,there was a large conversion of beach land to farmland,construction land and lakes,the conversion rate of wetland to non⁃wetland landscape was 25.58%,and the proportion of wetland landscape area decreased from 78%to 60%.From 2017 to 2030,the conversion of cropland and construction land to lakes results in a 75.79%conversion rate of non⁃wetland to wetland landscapes,and the percentage of wetland landscapes would reach to 90%.From 1980 to 2017,beach land landscapes have the most advantages and the most concentrated distribution,but the most complex shapes.During this period,the fragmentation of landscape scale increased continuously,and the number and density of patches increased to 23.51 per decade and 0.07 per decade,respectively.The connectivity of various landscapes is steady.The overall fragmentation of the landscape continues to increase,with connectivity and richness reaching their maximum in 1990 and 2017,respectively.In the next 2030,lakes will become the dominant landscape type,with concentrated patch distribution and enhanced connectivity but increased complexity.The overall landscape connectivity of the region becomes smaller,the spatial distribution is uneven,and the landscape richness is reduced.The historical evolution of the landscape pattern in Baiyangdian region is mainly affected by social and economic factors,and the principal component analysis results show that the interpretation degree is 62.00%.In the future climatic conditions,Baiyangdian wetland ecosystem has the risk of degradation,but the planned implementation of environmental governance and ecological restoration measures will play a leading role in the landscape pattern change of Baiyangdian region.After the guarantee of ecological water supply,the mutual feed⁃back relationship between landscape pattern and driving factors will also be adjusted.The research results can provide references for the planning and management of Baiyangdian wetland and construction of the ecological security pattern in the Xiongan New Area.