东地中海天然气开发——地区合作还是苦涩争夺?

Gas Development in the Eastern Mediterranean:Regional Cooperation or Competition

在埃及、以色列和塞浦路斯等相继发现东地中海地区天然气资源后,该地区局势不断升温并渐成热点。在埃、以等主导下,以东地中海天然气合作论坛为标志的地区合作联盟成立并开始运作,但土耳其也通过与利比亚签订地中海“海事管辖权”谅解备忘录、借“北塞浦路斯”问题加紧勘探等方式争夺更大话语权,造成地区局势紧张。在东地中海天然气合作论坛中,埃及通过建设地区能源枢纽增强其区域大国地位,以色列通过“天然气革命”增进与阿拉伯世界的合作,希腊、塞浦路斯、巴勒斯坦等希望加入东地中海天然气开发进程,该联盟也具有很好的国际合作空间。然而,埃、土矛盾深刻复杂并集中于利比亚问题,土耳其支持巴勒斯坦加强东地中海军事存在造成与以色列的矛盾,希、塞与土耳其矛盾由来已久并将长期存在争端。在大国博弈视角下,美国中东政策为埃、以主导东地中海天然气合作论坛扫除了障碍,欧盟国家将有限度支持该合作机制,俄罗斯需要保持在这一地区的影响力,同时土耳其也将东地中海问题纳入其“中东地缘政治三角”战略,欲在大国博弈中维护自身地位和利益。东地中海天然气合作开发问题值得持续关注。

After Egypt,Israel,and Cyprus discovered gas resources in the Eastern Mediterranean,the situation in the region has been heating up.Under the leadership of Egypt,Israel,and other countries,the regional cooperation alliance marked by the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum(EMGF)was established and started to operate.Meanwhile,Turkey also signed a memorandum of understanding on the“maritime jurisdiction”of the Mediterranean with Libya,and used the“Northern Cyprus”issue to step up exploration and other methods to compete for greater voice,causing growing tensions in the region.In EMGF,Egypt is planning to strength its status as a regional power through the construction of a regional energy hub.Israel will promote cooperation with the Arab world through the“Gas revolution,”Greece,Cyprus,Palestine,and other countries hope to join the process of gas development in the Eastern Mediterranean.The alliance also has a good space for international cooperation.However,Egypt and Turkey have profound disagreements over the Libyan issue.Turkey supports Palestine in strengthening its military presence in the Eastern Mediterranean,causing tensions with Israel.The tensions among Greece,Cyprus and Turkey have a long history and will persist.From the perspective of major power competition,Washington’s Middle East policy has cleared the way for Egypt and Israel to dominate EMGF.EU countries will support the regional cooperation mechanism to a limited extent.Russia needs to maintain its influence in this region.The issue of the cooperative development of gas in the Eastern Mediterranean requires continued attention.