移动互联网与智能手机是婚姻的杀手吗?——基于公开数据的实证研究

Are Mobile Internet and Smartphones the Killers of Marriage?——An Empirical Research Based on Open Data

智能手机叠加的多种功能为人们的生活、工作与交流带来极大的便利同时带来诸多家庭与婚姻问题。在全国层面看,离婚率与互联网普及率和手机网民数、手机网民占比与上网用户人数具有较强的相关性;从分省份角度看,各省份互联网上网人数、移动电话普及率、互联网普及率与离婚率有较强的关联性,互联网与智能手机的普及率与离婚率增长保持同步性。但从分省份分析,上述三项指标对离婚率影响非常有限。在个体层面,移动互联网与智能手机所引致的婚姻家庭价值体系改变、上网时间长、网络社交等因素成为离婚率升高的重要推力。

The superimposed functions of smart phones bring great convenience to people’s life,work and communication as well as many family and marriage problems.At the national level,the divorce rate has a strong correlation with the Internet penetration rate,the number of mobile Internet users,the proportion of mobile Internet users and the number of Internet users.From the perspective of different provinces,the number of Internet users,the mobile phone penetration rate and the Internet penetration rate have a strong correlation with the divorce rate in all provinces.The popularity of the internet and smartphones has kept pace with the increase of divorce rate,but the impact of the above three indicators on divorce rate is very limited from the analysis of different provinces.However,at the individual level,changes of marriage and family value system,the long time of surfing the Internet and social networking caused by mobile Internet and smartphones are the important driving forces for the increase of divorce rate.