金融集聚对经济增长的空间溢出效应及时空异质性研究--基于产业结构的调节效应检验

Financial Agglomeration,Spatial Spillover and Economic Growth--An Analysis Based on the Moderating Effect of Industrial Structure

基于2006—2017年中国31个省市的面板数据,利用空间杜宾模型,分区域分时段研究金融集聚对经济增长的空间溢出效应及时空异质性,并考虑了产业结构对金融集聚空间溢出效应的调节作用。研究发现:(1)中国金融集聚存在显著的空间依赖性和外溢性,空间分布格局显现出东中西梯度型减弱态势,并具有明显的高高集聚、低低集聚的空间非匀质特征;(2)从全国层面看,金融集聚对经济增长具有显著的空间溢出效应,而产业结构合理化及产业结构高级化从中发挥着正向调节作用;(3)从区域层面看,东部地区金融集聚处于“涓流效应”阶段,对经济增长存在显著的正向空间外溢性,而中西部地区金融集聚还处于“极化效应”阶段,对经济增长存在显著的负向空间外溢性;产业结构水平对东部地区空间溢出效应的正向调节作用明显高于西部地区,而中部地区由于金融系统发挥了“抽水机”功能,带动资源流向东部地区,没有用在本地区,导致产业结构对金融集聚的空间溢出效应产生了负向的调节作用。(4)从时间层面看,不同阶段金融集聚对本地和周边地区经济增长具有显著正向影响。随着时空的演进,金融集聚水平的提高以及产业结构升级,金融集聚的空间溢出效应显著增强。而且产业结构合理化对金融集聚空间外溢的调节作用明显强于产业结构高级化。

Based on the economic activity data of 31 provinces and cities in China from 2006 to 2017,this paper studied the spatial spillover effect and spatial heterogeneity of financial agglomeration on economic growth in different regions and periods by using the spatial Durbin model,and examined the regulation of the industrial structure on the spatial spillover effect of financial agglomeration.The research found that:(1)China's financial agglomeration has significant spatial dependence and spillover.The spatial distribution shows a weakening trend from the east to the west,characterized obviously by the high to low agglomeration;(2)nationwide,the financial agglomeration has a significant spatial spillover effect on the economic growth,and the rationalization and advancement of the industrial structure plays a positive regulatory role;(3)At the regional level,the financial agglomeration in the eastern region is in the stage of"trickle effect",which produces a significant positive spatial spillover on the economic growth,while in the central and western regions it is still in the stage of"polarization effect",which has a significant negative spatial spillover.The positive adjustment of the level of the industrial structure on the spatial spillover in the eastern region is higher than in the western region,while in the central region the financial system acts as a"water pump"that helps divert resources to flow to the east and leads to the negative adjustment of the industrial structure on the spatial spillover of financial agglomeration;(4)Temporally,the financial agglomeration at different stages has a significant positive impact on the economic growth in local and surrounding areas of.With the evolution of time and space,the financial agglomeration gets improved and the industrial structure upgraded,so that the spillover effect increases significantly.Moreover,the rationalization of the industrial structure has a stronger regulating effect on the spillover than the advancement of the industrial structure.