考虑新能源预测准确性的实时峰谷电价调度研究

Research on the Power Dispatch based on the Peak-Valley Electriccity Price with Consideration of the New Energy Generation Prediction Accuracy

日前发电计划将新能源预测功率或乘系数后预测功率处理,未对适应边界进行求解。文章将负荷和新能源拟合等效负荷,通过最优划分聚类算法划分峰谷时段,通过将任意时段作峰电价和不同火电机组开机方式检验失负荷风险时新能源预测功率准确性概率,检验是否符合新能源功率预测准确性要求;通过将任意时段作谷电价结合该火电机组开机方式对应新能源限电率;此外分析新能源功率预测准确适应性,通过某地区电网实际算例验证有效性。

The new energy generation prediction or new energy generation prediction with coefficient is used without solution adaptation boundary in day-ahead power generation scheduling.In this paper the peak and valley periods of load and equivalent load of new energy is divided by optimal clustering algorithm,The probability of accurate new energy generation prediction is validated under load loss risk with the electricity price with any period as peak in different startup mode of thermal power generating unit and the compliance of the new energy generation prediction with the requirement is also validated.And the rate of the new energy generation limitation is validated with the electricity price with any period as valley in differrent startup mode of thermal generating unit is validated.Finally the adaptability of the new new energy generation prediction accurancy is analyzed and the proposed method is validated with calculation on a regional power grid.