连片特困区扶贫政策效应评估

Effect Evaluation of Poverty Alleviation Policy in Contiguous Poverty Stricken Areas

2011年,《中国农村扶贫开发纲要》确定了连片特困区,标志着脱贫由全面帮扶向更注重深度贫困地区的攻坚转换,8年过去了,该政策对我国区域脱贫究竟有怎样的作用?利用2005-2017年260个县的面板数据,采用基于倾向得分匹配基础上的双重差分(PSM-DID)实证研究扶贫纲要的实施对农民的收入效果影响。结果显示,连片特困区的确立未对农民收入产生正向效果,并对低收入和中等收入组农民收入产生了显著的负向效果。同时,政策实施过程中存在一定的"政策陷阱",对于部分使农民收入增加的驱动因素均产生了"挤出效应"。针对研究结论从并行微观政策,增强造血功能,实行精准扶贫三个方面给出政策建议。

In 2011,the outline of China's rural poverty alleviation and development identified contiguous poverty-stricken areas,marking the transformation of poverty alleviation from comprehensive assistance to more focus on deep poverty-stricken areas.Eight years later,what is the effect of the policy on China's regional poverty alleviation?Using the panel data of 260 counties from 2005 to 2017,this paper empirically studies the impact of the implementation of the poverty alleviation program on Farmers'income by using the psm-did based on propensity score matching.The results showed that the establishment of contiguous poverty-stricken areas did not have a positive effect on Farmers'income,but had a significant negative effect on the income of low-income and middle-income groups.At the same time,there are some"policy traps"in the process of policy implementation,which produce"crowding out effect"for some driving factors that increase farmers'income.According to the research conclusion,this paper gives policy suggestions from three aspects:parallel micro policy,enhancing hematopoietic function and implementing targeted poverty alleviation.