全国地质灾害气象风险精细化网格预报方法及其应用

Meteorological Risk Assessment Method of Geological Disaster in China and Its Mesh Refinement Application

降水是地质灾害的主要诱因。地质灾害气象风险主要是降水诱发地质灾害导致的人员伤亡、财产破坏和经济活动中断的预期损失;地质灾害气象风险度在数值上可表达为降水因子致灾概率、孕灾环境潜在危险度和易损度三者归一后数值的乘积。分析选取有效雨量代表降水致灾因子,分区建立有效雨量致灾概率拟合方程;通过下垫面环境信息量方法评价地质灾害潜在危险度;通过简易易损度模型评价地质灾害易损度,三者共同构建地质灾害气象风险预报模型和评价方法,应用精细化定量降水网格预报产品,建立地质灾害气象风险精细化网格预报试验,以地质灾害事件对照模型试验结果,表明地质灾害气象风险模型应用效果良好。

Precipitation is the main cause of geological disasters.Geological disaster meteorological risk mainly exists in casualties,property damages and the expected loss of interrupted economic activities that are caused by geological disasters.Geological disaster meteorological risk degree can be expressed as the product of disaster probability of precipitation factor times environment potential risk degree,and further times vulnerability degree in numerical data.The effective rainfall data are selected as precipitation factor,and hereby,the geological disaster probability fitting equations of effective rainfall for nine regions are established.The potential risk of geological disaster is evaluated by the information method of the underlying surface environments and the vulnerability degree is employed to a simplified assessing model,which was related to three aspects of GDP,land-use and population.Then,the geological disaster meteorological risk forecasting model is constructed.By using the products of QPE and QPF in high resolution,the mesh refinement business test of risk model is established.Compared with geological disaster records,the results are illustrated to be reliable.