新型城镇化与土地集约利用交互效应分析--基于PVAR模型的京津冀城市群综合评价

Analysis of the interactive effects between new-type urbanization and intensive land use based on PVAR model:a case study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration

在准确识别新型城镇化与土地集约利用交互效应机理的基础上,运用纵横向拉开档次法对京津冀城市群新型城镇化水平和土地集约利用程度进行综合评价,进一步利用面板向量自回归模型实证分析新型城镇化与土地集约利用之间的交互效应。研究表明:第一,从脉冲响应分析结果看,新型城镇化与土地集约利用之间存在交互效应。具体来说,新型城镇化建设对推动土地集约利用具有显著的正向促进作用;土地集约利用从长期看有利于新型城镇化发展,但在短期内对新型城镇化建设的影响不显著。第二,从方差分解结果看,新型城镇化与土地集约利用之间的交互效应显著,但土地集约利用对新型城镇化的影响程度大于新型城镇化对土地集约利用的影响。

The coordinated development of new-type urbanization and land intensive use is of great significance to promote the high-quality development of urban agglomerations.On the basis of accurately identifying the interaction mechanism between new-type urbanization and land intensive use,taking Beijing Tianjin Hebei Urban Agglomeration as an example,it uses the vertical and horizontal grading method to comprehensively evaluate the new-type urbanization and land intensive use,and further uses the panel vector autoregressive model to verify and analyze the interaction between new-type urbanization and land intensive use.The results show that:(1)from the perspective of impulse response analysis,there is interaction between new-type urbanization and land intensive use.In the long term,land intensive use is conducive to the development of new-type urbanization,in the short term,the impact of land intensive use on the construction of new-type urbanization is small.(2)From the perspective of variance decomposition,the interaction between new-type urbanization and land intensive use is notable.However,generally speaking,the impact of land intensive use on new-type urbanization is greater than that of new-type urbanization on land intensive use.